Report on price changes of China's heavy packaging film market(2022-2025)
In the past three years, the global heavy packaging film (taking PE FFS film as an example) market price has generally followed the price fluctuations of raw material polyethylene (PE), coupled with the influence of factors such as energy, exchange rate and transportation, and the domestic and foreign market performances have varied. 2025 is already halfway through, and the overall trend of the industry has become clearer
1. Domestic market price review and current situation
According to public data from Zhuochuang Information and Sino-Trade,
the average ex-factory price of domestic FFS heavy packaging film in 2022 will be between 12,000 and 13,500 yuan/ton,
an increase of about 15% compared with 2021 (10,500 to 11,500 yuan/ton), mainly affected by high international oil prices and environmental protection production restrictions.
In 2023, with the decline in global energy prices, the average price of domestic polyethylene particles will fall, and the average price of FFS film will fall to 11,200 to 12,000 yuan/ton, with an average annual decline of about 7%.
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In 2024, the overall supply and demand of the domestic PE market will be stable, and the price range of FFS film will basically remain at 11,000 to 11,800 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation range of ±5% throughout the year.
Entering 2025, as of July,Data from Sino-Business and Zhuochuang Information show that the mainstream ex-factory quotation range of domestic three-layer/five-layer co-extruded FFS heavy packaging film is 10,800~11,500 yuan/ton.
Compared with the same period last year, the price has slightly dropped, mainly due to:
The price of upstream polyethylene (LLDPE) particles continues to run at a low level (average price of about 8,400~8,700 yuan/ton),
In addition, the operating rate of some fertilizer and feed industries is lower than expected, and the demand side has not formed a pull-up support,
Market prices have entered a typical off-season, and manufacturers mainly focus on stabilizing prices and moving volumes
2. Price changes in foreign markets
In the past three years, the foreign market has been more affected by international oil prices, geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in shipping costs:
In 2022, the FOB prices in Europe and North America are running high, and the average price of FFS membrane is 1,700~1,900 US dollars/ton.
In 2023, the ICIS report shows that the average price in the European and American markets has fallen to 1,550~1,700 US dollars/ton; the Middle East and Southeast Asia are affected by the release of new production capacity, and local prices have dropped to 1,400~1,600 US dollars/ton.
In 2024, inflation pressure in Europe and the United States has eased, but energy prices remain at a relatively high level. The export price of FFS membrane remains stable but weak, and the FOB price is mostly between 1,500~1,650 US dollars/ton.
By the first half of 2025, according to the ICIS 2025 Q2 report,
the European market quotation range is still between $1,450 and $1,600 per ton, the North American market is slightly lower, and some emerging production capacity in Southeast Asia is highly competitive, with low-end membrane quotations even around $1,300 per ton FOB.
Main performance: The demand for high-end multi-layer membranes in the European and American markets is stable, supporting the price of environmentally friendly membranes; while the production capacity of low-end membranes in the Middle East and Southeast Asia has increased, and export prices are under pressure.
3. Prediction of the trend in the second half of 2025 and 2026
Judging from the current situation, in the remaining six months of 2025, the domestic and foreign markets are expected to remain weak and stable, and it is difficult to rebound significantly:
The upstream LLDPE particle market is expected to fluctuate between 8,200 and 8,800 yuan/ton. If there is no major positive news on international crude oil prices, the cost support of heavy packaging film will be insufficient;
The peak season of downstream demand (such as fertilizer packaging in autumn) may bring a short-term slight boost, but the overall driving force is limited;
Based on comprehensive judgment, the annual average price of domestic FFS heavy packaging film is likely to end in the range of 10,800 to 11,500 yuan/ton, a slight decline of about 2% from 2024.
Looking ahead to 2026, if the newly commissioned production capacity does not increase significantly, domestic environmental protection requirements continue to tighten, and sustainable packaging policies are promoted, the demand for functional and high-performance multi-layer films is expected to bring local structural support, but under the overall loose supply and demand pattern, industry prices will still remain at a relatively reasonable level, with an estimated fluctuation range of 10,500~11,500 yuan/ton, and the high-end market in Europe and the United States may remain at 1,500~1,650 US dollars/ton FOB.
4. Conclusion
In the past three years, the price fluctuations of heavy packaging films have been closely related to polyethylene raw materials, international energy and transportation costs.
Halfway through 2025, the market trend is basically clear. The industry needs to focus on changes in supply and demand, oil price trends and the prosperity of downstream industries, and adjust raw material procurement and inventory management strategies in advance to cope with the risks brought by future price fluctuations.